Saturday, November 3, 2007

President Ron Paul

I'll be the first to admit that I don't usually see things in the same light as many others. I could fight it but choose to embrace it. It seems to be "in the stars" for Ron Paul to be the next president.

The last time I made serious predictions was a few NCAA basketball tournaments ago. I hadn't watched but a half-dozen or so games that year, but am a freak when it comes to box scores, schedule analysis and team studies. I usually don't have to watch the games. I'm not a gambling man by nature but it's needless to say that I'm looking forward to the opportunity to bet on some hoops now and again. Anyway, in that pool I walked away with the victory before the Elite Eight was finalized. It was statistically impossible for anyone to catch me. There were over 70 people who entered but they couldn't compete with someone who had the foresight to nail all but one Sweet Sixteen team and the entire Elite Eight, in a very upset laden year.

There are a few key factors to look at when picking the upset. Perhaps the most important is performance against good teams on the road. Ron Paul isn't just winning a localized Straw Poll here and there. He is dominating flesh-n-blood vote counts in nearly every state and has been for months. Heck, Ron almost performs better on the road than at home. The Republican establishment in Texas doesn't like RP.

Say he entered the tourney as a 12-seed. When you are the big underdog, there is no better seed to have than the 12. The 5 only beats the 12 about 68% of the time. The 4 beats the 13 about 80% of the time. Many times you are able to snag some great odds on the 5/12 game despite the 12 having the same historical odds to win as the 11 does over the 6. Confused yet? Oh well.

The presidential race is a lot like the NCAA tourney, but not exactly. In the presidential race you essentially start the next round with new seeding. Ron Paul was a 12-seed for the first round, but he's not anymore. Ron Paul might just be 1985 Villanova, the #8 who defeated #1 and heavily favored Georgetown to win the whole thing. Nova had to beat Michigan, Maryland, Memphis St. and Carolina on the way there. Ron has had to deal with Saul, the NSA, Fred, Carolina and will defeat Georgetown Hillary Clinton to win it all. Oh, and what do you know, 2008 minus 1985 equals that magical number, 23.

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